The economy is far from being on the ropes.

The implicit message is that the U.S. dollar needs to go down.

The housing market is not slowing sufficiently to comfort the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The lift in pricing intentions to their highest levels since late 2000 represents a clear warning shot. The message is one of pricing pressure and inflation risks. Monetary policy will remain in a restrictive stance.

Clark and Cullen have proven they are good at making governments work. No one will be in a hurry to call an early election.

International oil prices have shifted to a higher level permanently.

I'm U.S. dollar bullish over the next three months, largely because the Fed will go to 4.75 percent and they'll leave the door open to 5 percent.

Confidence is a critical element if the economy is to maintain forward momentum. Expect growth to remain tepid but a recession to be averted.

It's a question of relative risks and Bollard is more mindful of inflation. He will be comfortable with receding growth.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to reaffirm its no-cut stance, cementing yield-related strength for a while yet.